A maturing retail market
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Polish retail market has clearly bounced back and regained its footing. The sector has adjusted smoothly to evolving shopping habits. Scenarios predicting a crisis in traditional retail have not played out, and retail parks have stepped up as the main engine of growth, now taking the lead in new supply.
Over the past six years, retail parks have contributed approximately 1.8 million sqm of new space, while shopping centers have added around 400,000 sqm.
“The shopping center market is nearing saturation, and investment activity is shifting toward refurbishments, extensions, and repositioning of existing assets. The key trend is a move away from quantity toward quality, including tailoring the offer to changing consumer needs. Significant shifts in tenant mix are also visible, with a growing share of F&B, sports and leisure, drugstores, and value retail brands,” emphasizes Anna Pływacz, Head of Retail at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
Strong development pipeline
BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland analysts point out that, as of the end of March 2026, around 850,000 sqm of modern retail space was under construction, including both new developments and extensions of existing assets.
Over 663,000 sqm is expected to come on stream in 2026–2027, marking a 90% increase year-on-year.
Retail parks continue to lead the way, accounting for more than 780,000 sqm under development (92% of the total pipeline). This underlines sustained interest in the segment from both developers and investors.
Major ongoing projects include:
- BIG Piła (38,000 sqm)
- MMG Centers Krosno (26,000 sqm)
- Brama Bieszczad in Sanok (23,000 sqm)
- PH Świderek in Otwock (23,000 sqm)
A more diverse retail park offer
Between January and the end of March 2026, more than 76,000 sqm of modern retail space was delivered, up by 70% year-on-year, although the result came in below the very strong end of the previous quarter.
One of the largest openings in Q1 was the second phase of San Park Piaseczno (Mysiadło, near Piaseczno), delivering 15,900 sqm for Agata Meble. Other key schemes included:
- M Park Bogatynia (8,200 sqm)
- Retail Park Tomaszów Lubelski (8,000 sqm)
While retail remains the dominant function in retail parks, services and F&B are increasingly stepping up their presence. Fashion retailers and drug stores are also gaining ground.
Despite gradual diversification, the tenant mix in retail parks remains relatively narrow and largely based on repeat brands. At the same time, the best-performing schemes—especially those near large urban areas—are increasingly drawing in brands previously found only in traditional shopping centers.
Stock and vacancy levels
Looking at the total modern retail stock (including shopping centers, outlet centers, retail parks, and standalone schemes), Warsaw ranks first with 2.3 million sqm, followed by the Katowice conurbation (1.5 million sqm) and the Tri-City (nearly 1 million sqm).
The highest saturation levels are recorded in Wrocław and Poznań, at 1,044 sqm and 1,005 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants respectively.
In H1 2025, the average vacancy rate stood at 2.8%, down by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The lowest vacancy levels were recorded in Szczecin (1.8%) and Warsaw (1.9%), while the highest were in Wrocław (4.1%) and Poznań (3.6%).
In most analyzed agglomerations, vacancy rates edged down, pointing to a balanced market and stable demand.
Improving retail performance and rental pressure
Market performance data also shows an improvement in retail sales. In February 2026, turnover was up by 1.7% year-on-year, despite a 0.9% drop in footfall.
According to Statistics Poland (GUS), both retail and online sales increased in February 2026, by 5% and 9.3% year-on-year respectively.
Q1 also saw new brands rolling out in Poland, including:
- Canadian brand Lululemon
- Asian chain XIMI V
- Online concept Søstrene Grene, which has also announced plans to open a physical store in Warsaw
A clear improvement in retail conditions and real growth in retail sales are now feeding into rental increases across most formats.
“The strongest upward pressure was seen in prime shopping centers and the most attractive units between 100 and 500 sqm. Further increases in top malls are likely in the coming months, while in retail parks, lease renewals from the pandemic period may lead to local rent adjustments for selected sectors and formats,” notes Renata Weikert, Senior Consultant, Office Agency at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
